Scott Moore speaks with Jim Toth on 680 CJOB!
Realtor Scott Moore spoke with Jim Toth on 680 CJOB about Winnipeg’s real estate market, the latest trends, the tariff threat, and much more! Take a listen and give Scott a call at 204-995-7355 to stay-to-date.
Takeaways on the current Winnipeg real estate market:
The Winnipeg market is hot! In Jan 2025, we saw:
An average price of detached homes up a whopping 6% compared to January 2024. The house you could buy last January for $500,00 would now cost you $530,000!
MLS® sales were up 10% over January 2024, and up 1% above the 5-year average.
January is the seventh month in row where sales were up. It’s a trend!
January 2025 was the second-best January in MB history, behind 2021, which was our best year!
The $375-399k price range was the most active, the second most active price range was $600-699k
Average sale price in Winnipeg for January detached homes:
Entire city: $424,580
Highest: South west $570,927 – South East $481,560
Lowest is the West: still very affordable at $304,107
What’s happening with interest rates?
The lowest rates we saw were in March 2020 when covid hit, and the Bank of Canada rate dropped to 0.5%, where it stayed for two years until March 2022.
By December 2022, only 9 months later, the Bank of Canada rate was up to 4.25%. We started to see significant real estate cooling in the Fall of 2022, when we hit the 3.75% mark.
By July 2023 it was up to 5%
The BoC rate stayed at 5% for 12 more months til June 2024, when we got the first drop to 4.75%.
In January 2025, dropped to 3% (current).
Current predictions are that it may gradually get to 2.5% by the end of 2025 but hard to say based on tariffs.
The average bank of Canada interest rate from 1990 to 2024 was 5.77%. So 3% is a great rate.
For context the monthly payments on a 500K house at 5% down payment are $2,873 at 5%, and drop to $2,338 at 3% - difference of $535/month. At 2.5% its $2,213, which is $125/month less than at 3%.
A few key points on impact of potential tariffs:
For now, just uncertainty.
Will it slow down buyers? Probably not. Huge pent up demand due to 2.5 years of high interest rates, so we have keen buyers plus low rates now. But could impact in the long term if the tariffs do come in, and if they last a long time, it will impact spending power and affordability.
Canada imports 3.4 billion in appliances and 1.6 billion of furniture from the US. If you’re planning to buy either, probably should do it now.
Only 8% of new construction materials are sourced from USA, although 40% of the mechanical equipment in a home (HVAC, AC, etc) comes via the USA, as do most appliances. It will raise prices in new construction but hopefully not too bad.
Future is uncertain - people planning to sell in the 1-2 year timeframe (ie. downsizers) might want to consider selling now instead while rates are low and the market is hot.
Time will tell. Let’s review in 90 days.